The First Democratic Debate

Stop saying to yourself it's early.

It's not that early. (We're only 9 months away from Iowa afterall.)

So tonight it begins. The first Presidential debate.

6 p.m.-7:30 p.m. Central Time on MSNBC (live webstream on MSNBC.com)

Unless one of the top candidates makes a remarkable gaffe that can be replayed on YouTube, no one will remember the first Democratic presidential debate months from now.

But the debate still sets the stage and the tone.

This debate won't be as much about policy as it will be about presence. Do one (or more) of these Democrats really look (and sound) like he or she can be President?

So what will you see tonight? Here's the smart conventional wisdom:

Hillary Clinton should stay above the fray. No need to attack any of her opponents. Dare them to beat up on a woman! But the former first lady should strive to say something authentic and unrehearsed. Then again, she doesn't have to do anything (except not screw up) because she's the frontrunner.

Barack Obama shouldn't attack Hillary. He should also stay above the fray. Sure, he can hint that he was against the war before we launched it. But he needs to show gravitas. He can't just look and sound cool. He should address his negatives. The top one: Does this guy have what it takes? Maybe unveil a new policy position to showcase some substance. Other than that, Obama should smile at Hillary and wink at Edwards. Because right now, he da man.

John Edwards should make distinctions. Go on the offensive. Alright, I'll just say it. Attack. Edwards is in the odd position of being sandwiched between two superstars and a lower-tier of candidates. He's got a legitimate shot at the nomination, but he's still an underdog. Edwards should talk up healthcare, and take some potshots at the frontrunners to show some steel.

Bill Richardson should say something in Spanish. He should repeat that he's the only Governor in this race, from a southwestern state. He should say he's talked tough to dictators overseas. And he should note that this is too important of an election to just pick a superstar. And then he should say something else in Spanish.

Joe Biden should do what he does best. Talk. But not too much. He should be himself, but make sure he doesn't go over the time allotted for a response that would reinforce a stereotype that he's a blowhard. He should outline his Iraq plan to partition the country. And then say that it's the position that most Democratic candidates will have 6 months from now. He should be tough on the top tier, but in a light-hearted, even funny way.

Chris Dodd should give a reason for his candidacy other than that he's got experience. Experience on the Democratic side isn't a compelling enough argument to elevate him into the top year. If voters want experience, they'll go with Hillary. Why are you running Christ Dodd? Specifically? Articulate a position that raises eyebrows, and take some shots at the top tier. You got nothing to lose.

Dennis Kucinich should tell us why he's running again. The answer will be that there's no clear anti-war candidate. Kucinich may be the only one to directly challenge Hillary and Obama on Iraq. He'll make it fun. And he'll probably deliver the best (or most outrageous) soundbite of the night.

Mike Gravel should tell people who he is and why no one has been covering him. He should rail against political reporters for drooling over the celebrity candidates instead of covering the issues. He should tell us why he's different. And then late in the debate he should say something that will be worth watching on YouTube over and over.

Again, the debate is 6 p.m. Central Time.

Word is local Democrats will be meeting at Harpo's to watch.

After it is over, make sure to come back here and tell me what you think.