Times/Bloomberg: It's Talent by 3

A new Los Angeles Times-Bloomberg poll shows Sen. Jim Talent leading Democrat Claire McCaskill by 3 points with just under two weeks until election day.

Sen. Jim Talent 48%
Claire McCaskill 45%

The poll, supervised by Times polling director Susan Pinkus, was conducted Friday through Monday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

The survey also conducted polls in a number of other U.S. Senate battlegound states. It found that while Senate control is within Democrats' grasp, pitfalls remain.

While Sen. Talent's biggest enemy could be a national anti-Republican wave, McCaskill's biggest challenge could be the pure voting demographic of Missouri.

Check out this graph in Ron Brownstein's piece:

"But the polls found that enduring Republican strengths remain a huge barrier for Democrats, especially in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia. In these states, the Republican coalition is somewhat chipping around the edges: in each, the GOP nominee is capturing a smaller share of support among conservatives than the Democrat is among liberals."

"Even so, the surveys point toward substantial stability in the socially conservative electoral coalition that allowed Bush to carry each state in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections."

Among white men in Missouri, Talent led by 11 percentage points.
Among whites in Missouri who attend church once a week or more, Talent led McCaskill, 65% to 30%. Among rural voters, Talent led McCaskill, 56% to 37%.

Bush's approval rating stands at 47% in Missouri.

McCaskill under 40% among the rural vote. Bush way above 40%.
These numbers are very good numbers for Republicans.

But these numbers are all over the place. A recent MSNBC poll had McCaskill up by 3 points.

Is this the only race in the country without some type of trend one way or the other?!? I mean, this is fun and all, but frustrating to try and figure out. Who has the momentum? It's completely unclear.

Go figure.

After all this back and forth . . . watch it be a blow-out one way or the other come election day.

Now that'd be irony.