Rothenberg: A Democratic Senate Unlikely

Even with the political winds in their favor, it is unlikely the Democrats will win enough seats this November to take control of the U.S. Senate, according to political analyst Stuart Rothenberg.

Rothenberg calls Missouri a "toss-up."

Below is the full story from the Austin-American Statesman:

WASHINGTON -- In the fight for control of the U.S. Senate this fall, things can change as quickly as you can say "macaca."

Just weeks ago, in Virginia, Republican incumbent George Allen Jr. appeared to be on autopilot in his re-election campaign. Then, at a campaign rally, he referred to a Virginia native of Indian descent as "macaca," a genus of monkey, and mockingly extended a "welcome to America" greeting.

While Virginia still "leans Republican," according to political prognosticators, Allen now is in a tougher-than-expected fight with Democrat Jim Webb and his plans to follow up his Senate re-election with a presidential bid in 2008 may be on hold, permanently.

Still, nonpartisan political analysts say it's a good bet that the Republicans will retain control of the Senate on Nov. 7. Even with anti-incumbent, anti-Republican and anti-war sentiment on the rise among voters, Democrats have too steep a hill to climb to overcome the Republican advantage.

"In a big partisan wave, anything can happen, but so far Democrats still seem short of the magical sixth Senate seat" they need to win the chamber, Stuart Rothenberg concluded in the Sept. 8 issue of his widely followed newsletter, the Rothenberg Political Report.

Thirty-three of the Senate's 100 seats are up for re-election this fall, 18 of which are held by Democrats, 15 by Republicans. Of those 33 seats, leading political prognosticators generally agree there probably are no more than 14 competitive races, perhaps no more than eight of which are "toss ups" with no clear favorites.

Six of the toss up races are over seats held by Republicans. The problem for Democrats is that four of those six -- Missouri, Montana, Ohio and Tennessee -- are in states that President Bush carried in both of his White House campaigns.

Even so, nearly all the political signposts favor the Democrats: Bush's approval ratings, while improved, are still well below 50 percent; for more than a year, more than 60 percent of voters have told Gallup pollsters that they are dissatisfied with the direction of the country; and in the most recent CNN poll, 64 percent of voters disapproved of the way the Republican majority in Congress is doing its job.

"These are numbers that look like 1994," Jennifer Duffy, who monitors Senate races for the influential Cook Political Report, said, referring to the Republican takeover of Congress a dozen years ago. "The wave is out there (for the Democrats). It's just a question of how big it's going to be."