It's the Calendar, Stupid.

We've been following the developments in the Democratic party over the early primaries in 2008. Last Saturday, the DNC set its calendar for picking its nominee. Iowa goes first with its caucuses on Monday, January 14. Nevada will immediately follow on the following Saturday, followed by the New Hamphire primary on Tuesday January 22. South Carolina runs its primary the following Saturday.

The move is meant to empower Hispanic voters in Nevada and African-American voters in South Carolina by giving them some say early in the process for picking a nominee.

New Hampshire-ites aren't happy about it. They wear the "First in the Nation" label like a badge of honor. It's even written into their state laws that the New Hampshire Primary must take place seven days earlier than any "similar" election. To meet that standard would require pushing the primary almost into December.

To circumvent such a move by New Hampshire and its secretary of state, the Democrats also established provisions to punish any candidate and state who breaks their rules. Any candidates who don't follow the rules would be ineligible to receive that state's delegates the convention.

Some of the candidates have already pledged they will honor New Hampshire as the first primary.

Here are some of the potential effects of this move by the DNC:

1) Organizations will be key now -- States want to be involved in picking the next president. They want the attention of the candidates. Look for more states to shoot for that February 5th date when states like Missouri, Alabama, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, among others, hold their primaries. That meants candidates who are serious about winning need to be in those states now, seetting up organizations, raising money, pressing flesh because it's going to be a sprint in late 2007.

2) No comeback kids -- New Hampshire prides itself on giving underogs a chance. John McCain won there. So did Paul Tsongas and Pat Buchanan and Edmund Muskie. With four states having primaries/caucuses in 12 days, there won't be time to make a last minute surge. It'll be about TV and again having strong organizations in place.

3) No fresh ideas -- New Hampshire defenders will say the homes and pubs of their people are where new ideas begin, evolve and eventually become the messages of the candidates. They are the national focus group, helping shape ideas by offering one-on-one face-to-face reaction for the candidates. By changing the calendar, there won't be time for that kind of personal interaction. Too many states in too little time to sit down and break bread with New Hampshire.

Republicans don't plan to make changes to their primary calendar. They will honor Iowa and New Hampshire and set February 5 as the earliest date any other state can hold a primary.

C-SPAN has a great discussion among New Hampshire officials about this. Watch it now using Real Player.