Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Fuzzy Math

CLIMBING OUT OF THE RED?
LinkGovernor Jay Nixon's higher education funding deal to keep funding flat raises new questions about the size of Missouri's budget deficit and what could be on the chopping block.

HIGHER ED CHAIR SEES "NO WITHHOLDS"; ICET NOT SURE

2-YEARS ALSO INCLUDED IN DEAL; NOT YET SAYS NIXON'S OFFICE


HIGDON: $340 M DEFICIT NO LONGER CORRECT

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

A deal between Missouri's new Governor and higher education institutions could possibly save schools from any cut in funding next year. In early December, Jay Nixon's top budget adviser projected a $340 million dollar deficit by June.

But the rollout of this agreement coupled with comments from Missouri lawmakers and higher education officials seem to indicate that Missouri's financial picture might not be as bleak as originally thought.

On the other hand, maybe not.

And that raises the question of, if not higher education, then what?

Nixon's agreement received cautiously optimistic praise from some key House Republicans Wednesday. House Higher Education Chair Gayle Kingery said he's hearing good feedback from schools. "I like the concept, it's a good trade-off in these tough economic times," Kingery said.

Kingery seemed bullish on the budget picture that Missouri faces, doubting that the state would have to "do withholds," meaning holding back some funding during the current fiscal year. "I think we can come out even, on target," Kingery said. "I don't anticipate any big withholds. The last numbers I saw showed we're about even."

Kingery said he expects a negative third quarter, but thinks by June, "we're going to be doing all right." He credits "good fiscal management" over the past three years by former Governor Matt Blunt and the G.O.P. legislature. "We're in better shape than anybody surrounding us. You've got to realize, when Governor Nixon took office, he inherited a $300 million dollar reserve, Blunt inherited a billion dollar deficit," he said.

House Budget Chair Allen Icet said he was a bit surprised by Nixon's announcement, but "liked the part about not passing the bill onto parents." Still, Icet has questions. He said he wants to know if Access Scholarships are included under Nixon's higher education umbrella. Those scholarships are controversial among some Democrats because they provide money to private colleges.

"Is this truly feasible for 2010," wondered Icet in an interview, noting that he's still unclear if Nixon's decision is based on potential withholds for 2009. "The devil's in the details."

While Nixon did not come to Springfield Wednesday, Missouri State University president Michael Nietzel held a media availability and acknowledged current year withholdings could be a possibility. "It's conceivable that at some point, the state may say, we're going to have to take a little back this year to make it work. If that occurs, we'll deal with it," Nietzel said.

Another question that arose was whether 2-year and community colleges were included in this no cuts for no hikes deal. Ozarks Technical Community College president Hal Higdon told KY3 that his school has the "same agreement as the 4-year institutions."

Higdon, who spoke to us after a day of lobbying lawmakers in Jefferson City, said, "anything that is not a cut is a good thing."

Nixon spokesperson Scott Holste would not confirm that a 2-year agreement had yet been reached, but said the Nixon administration was working on it.

But Higdon also indicated that he believes the $340 million dollar deficit projected last month is no longer a relevant number.

"The projections are looking much better. I don't believe it's anywhere near that. I think if there is a withholding, it'll be much less than that," Higdon said.

The caveat? Revenue over the next few months. "We're only in January," Higdon cautioned. "The devil's in the details."

Yes, and right now the details on Missouri's budget projection seems fuzzy.




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