Tuesday, August 19, 2008

My Veep Predictions

Sounds like we're getting close to announcements . . .

These are probably worth less than 2 cents . . . but here it goes.

Obama should/will pick Sen. Joe Biden, for his experience, his foreign policy gravitas, his blue-collar Scranton, Pa. roots, his ability to attack and debate, the likability/respect he commands with independents, his gray hair.

McCain should pick Former Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge, for his personal comfort level with him, because he looks/sounds good on TV, to be able to put Pennsylvania in play, to further enhance his own foreign policy/national security credentials, to highlight his independent streak.

McCain will pick Gov. Tim Pawlenty. He's young, from a Midwest battleground state, safe with the base and acceptable with the other G.O.P. planks. He could also help connect on economic issues. And oh yeah, he got rid of his mullet.

So who else is willing to put it on the line?


Matt said...

Obama will pick Biden for the reasons you articulated. Oddly enough, he'll be a Cheney (2000) to Obama's George W; gravitas with a street fighter's mentality.

McCain is less clear. He should gamble and choose Ridge but he won't because they feel that they couldn't survive the pro-choice aspect even though Ridge has put that boogeyman to bed by pledging not to undercut McCain. Ridge has many advantages and would be a great contrast if Obama went with a pick like Kaine. Ridge is a grown-up's grown-up, displaying seriousness without the dourness of a Cheney. Bush should have picked Ridge in 2000- he has a compelling narrative: blue collar PA roots, combat vet, Harvard law, Congress, very successful governor, and cabinet secretary.

In the end, McCain picks Romney for his economic acumen and his ability to put Michigan in play.

gcmissouri said...

Well David, kudos to you for making the correct pick. However, I think Biden is a lousy choice for Obama. A campaign that's based on "change" and a fresh perspective on how things are done in D.C. and he selects a guy who's been there for 35 years? He might as well have picked Ted Kennedy!

This whole "gravitas" thing is overrated. (In fact, I hate that word. It wouldn't even be part of the everyday English language had some political pundit not thought of it). Biden adds no dynamic to make you suddenly want to vote for Obama instead of McCain, and he's from Delaware which does nothing on Election Day b/c the Dems win DE anyway. He would have been better off picking Bayh or Kaine, which would have given the Democratic ticket some dynamic and appeal like Clinton/Gore in 1992.

Who Obama picked was irrelevant to me anyway b/c there is little or no chance that I'd vote for him. But, I think he at least could have been somewhat tempting by picking a nice guy like Bayh or a young, well liked up and comer like Kaine, rather than an old stiff.