Sunday, January 27, 2008

Who's Little Mister Sunshine?

Two new polls from Florida out Sunday highlight a two-man race in the Republican primary in the Sunshine State.

Looks like it's John McCain vs. Mitt Romney -- with Rudy Giuliani hoping to pull off a Hail Mary. For McCain, a win could make him unstoppable. For Romney, a win could again scramble the G.O.P. side heading into February 5th.

Huckabee hurts Romney, peeling away social conservatives. Giuliani is taking moderates away from McCain. But this is a closed-Republican-only primary. No independents to push McCain through this time. That's why it's so close.


Mitt Romney 33%

John McCain 27%
Rudy Giuliani 18%
Mike Huckabee 12%
(500 voters, 1/26)

Mitt Romney 30%

John McCain 30%
Mike Huckabee 14%
Rudy Giuliani 13%
(814 voters, 1/24-1/26)

Florida Republicans vote Tuesday night.

1 comment:

Matt said...

Not to rain on Mitt's parade, but the Real Clear Politics average has Florida as a virtual tie. McCain is clearly gaining momentum, garnering the endorsements of Senator Martinez on Friday and popular Governor Crist on Saturday. None of the current polls reflect these endorsements. Martinez's popularity in the Cuban community and Crist's popularity statewide could well be enough to push McCain past Romney on Tuesday.

Another dynamic in Florida is early voting- people have been voting down there for quite some time. This will play strongly to Giuliani, though not enough to vault him into second place.

In the final analysis, McCain wins by 1-3% over Romney, with Rudy well behind in third.

We'll emerge from Florida with a two person race, with Rudy and Huckabee effectively removed from consideration.