Pollwatch: Note Newt!

A slew of new presidential polls are out today . . .

You ask, why do I obsess with such trivial numbers so often?

Because, just like our weather radar, it's the best system we got.

SOUTH CAROLINA G.O.P. - WIS-TV

John McCain 25%

Rudy Giuliani 20%

Fred Thompson 16%

Newt Gingrich 12%

SOUTH CAROLINA G.O.P. - InsiderAdvantage

Rudy Giuliani 22%

Newt Gingrich 15%

Mitt Romney 10%

John McCain 9%

(Here's a perfect reason why polls are so screwy. Two different polls, taken in the same state, with about the same sample, at about the same time, are producing drastically different results. Look at the difference in McCain's support. Yet, Gingrich, notably looks strong in both. Does the absence of Thompson in the Insider poll matter?)

SOUTH CAROLINA DEMS - InsiderAdvantage

Barack Obama 31%

Hillary Clinton 27%

John Edwards 16%

FLORIDA G.O.P.

Rudy Giuliani 29%

John McCain 15%

Mitt Romney 14%

FLORIDA DEMS

Hillary Clinton 42%

Barack Obama 19%

John Edwards 12%

Finally, I'm not a big one on national surveys. Because, frankly, our system is state-by-state - not a national popular vote. And momentum from wins in key states is immeasurable. But this grabbed my attention. Newt Gingrich grabs 13% in a national G.O.P. primary. David Brooks has already predicted that Newt will pull off an upset in Iowa and shake up the race -- for a week.