Measuring Talent's Vulnerability

From Human Events via johncombest.com:

Writer Kevin Combest takes a close look at three supposedly "anti-incumbent" races, and concludes that the "anti-incumbent" movement is greatly exaggerated.

One incumbent who Combest believes isn't as vulnerable as the media thinks is Sen. Jim Talent.
"Earlier this year, Talent appeared to be on the ropes, either tying or trailing his opponent McCaskill in most polls. McCaskill’s leads never escaped single digits, but catch-up is not a safe game for an incumbent senator, no matter how shallow the hole may be. Now, Talent is polling on top, leading Claire McCaskill by an average of two points in the latest RCP average. Yes, it’s only two points, and sure, things can change. But if one of the Senate’s most vulnerable incumbents is leading at all, the idea of an anti-incumbent climate is doubtful."

Combest concludes:

"If the anti-incumbent crowd is correct, these three races should be cake walks. They are not. As with so many insurgent candidacies, it appears that these three challengers have peaked."