It's William Shakespeare and it may or may not be an appropriate way to summarize primary night 2006 in the Ozarks.
Set aside the auditor's race on the Republican side, and primary night in Missouri ended up being a lot of noise without the funk. In other words, the surprises were few and far in between. No insurgent challengers won. Turnout was low. Incumbents won pretty handily. But as I begin to look closer, (yes, tired and bleary-eyed) this is what stands out as far as my initial take.
Observations, Analysis, Trends and oh yes, Questions . . . Many Questions . . .
May the buzz begin . . .
U.S. Senate
Senator Jim Talent is on pace to win more votes than Claire McCaskill on primary night. If that trend continues, the question has to be raised: What happened to that invigorated Democratic base that was supposed to turn out? Also, McCaskill's primary opponent Bill Clinton Young is on track to win 21% of Democratic primary votes. That's like Ross Perot territory. Young has garnered more than 61,000 votes! Did voters really turn out to vote FOR Young or were these votes AGAINST McCaskill? Turning out the base . . . Is this a hint of subtle, underlying problems for Claire this fall?
State Auditor
If Sandra Thomas holds on to her lead in the fractured G.O.P. auditor primary, the lesson learned is that party power still matters. For weeks, I've been hearing Thomas is the party pick because she's a woman, with an accounting degree from Kansas City. Others poo-pood that. Rivals mocked her ads, questioned her charisma. But as of this posting, Thomas holds 32% of the vote total, with a solid 6 point lead over Colonel Jack Jackson. Thomas did very well in Greene County. Her performance raised the eyebrows of some local G.O.P. faithful who predicted a Jackson or John Loudon victory. Meanwhile, just days after being abandoned by his own party, Springfield Rep. Mark Wright is on pace to place fourth, with 14% of the vote. Members of both parties say his political future is sad, unfortunate, maybe even unfair . . . but ultimately questionable.
#134
Battered but undeterred, Rep. Jim Viebrock prevails in what was a nasty, personal, knock-down drag out affair out in Republic. Longtime educator gave Viebrock a run for his money. But Viebrock will take an 8-point, 250 vote victory . . . especially against a guy (Bilyeu) it seems noone has ever said anything BAD about. Now, Mayor Jim Collins on the other hand, got beat handily.
#135
A run for your money doesn't get you an office in Jefferson City. Rep. Charlie Denison beat back an aggressive challenger in David Dunn. Denison won 55%-45%, despite several campaign missteps and ghosts of a campaign past. Call it a scare, call it a sign of discontent. I call it a win for Denison. Second place doesn't get you anywhere in politics . . . unless maybe you are Joe Lieberman.
#136
It's no secret Rep. B.J. Marsh has been battling health problems. His signs on the corner of Sunshine and National were the most visible signs of his campaign. Still, he wins going away . . . with 73%. Take that. Who needs door to door anyway? Democrat James Owen did win more than 1,000 votes. With an organized effort, he could make things interesting.
#137
Republican Dan Scott wins easily with 62%. Democrat Charlie Norr cruises with 56%. That sets up a match-up that Democrats are excited about. Ripe for the picking, is how I heard one Democrat say it Tuesday night. Norr won 635 votes in a 3-way primary compared to Scott's 598. That sets up a possibly competitive race for Rep. Mark Wright's seat, but one the Democrats have a real chance to win back.
#138
Don't mock the Segway just yet. Republican party pick Steve Helms wins going away with 62%. Primary-less, Rep. Sara Lampe looked like she was having fun Tuesday night. She's clearly become the leader of the party in Southwest Missouri and she will be tough to knock off in this district. Although, Helms only trailed her in the raw vote total by 90 ballots Tuesday.
#139
Remember that lesson about political parties still mattering? Here too. Voters care more about just a name apparently. Or maybe G.O.P. is just a more powerful name than Roark after all. This was the most watched race of the night and seemed to be the closest, but in the end Shane Schoeller earned an 11-point victory, toppling Karen Roark 48%-37%. Joe Pyles ran an admirable race. Forget your politics, Pyles is a candidate who cares and would add to any debate. He and his homemade signs pulled just 14%. Jamie Schoolcraft won 965 votes and the Democratic nomination. He couldn't stop telling me about how competitive he'll make this race. He's got heart, spirit and issues to talk about . . . but man, oh man, this is Republican district.
There is so much more to cover, there is so much more to say. But it will have to wait. But please, hit me up with your analysis, tibdits and observations from election night.
Biggest winner? Biggest loser?
Biggest surprise of the night?
Most notable anecdote from election night?
Biggest indicator of the future?
Which party really won?
What else is notable?
What am I missing?
Much more to come . . .
To November -OR- Bust!
1 comment:
What last night showed is the the Republicans do not do their homework before they elect people. How can you elect Dan Scott who does not really live here and said nothing on the issues, and when asked about a key pro life issue he left the building? All he did was buy some kids pool passes and presto he's in. I would not be surprised on some crossover votes there. Charlie will win this seat with 60% or more of the vote. Charlie's Santa is more impressive then Dan's pool passes because everyone will have forgot by November.
And the auidtor race. Sandra Thomas will be eaten alive by city and county governemnts. She has no leadership and just because she can do the audits herself she'll quickly realise she'll have bigger fish to fry. Montee will win easily and the GOP will have lost a chance to pick up a state wide post.
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