AP/Ipsos Poll Offers Sobering Numbers for G.O.P.

A new AP/Ipsos poll pegs President Bush's approval rating at 33%. Here's why it matters to G.O.P. candidates around the country:

"More sobering for the GOP are the number of voters who backed Bush in 2004 who are ready to vote Democratic in the fall's congressional elections -- 19 percent. These one-time Bush voters are more likely to be female, self-described moderates, low- to middle-income and from the Northeast and Midwest," writes Donna Cassata of the Associated Press.

Republicans responded by noting it is only August, and that while late summer polls have typically been filled with bad news for the President, eventually things turn around.

Cassata adds, "But fewer than 100 days before the Nov. 7 election, the AP-Ipsos poll suggested the midterms are clearly turning into a national referendum on Bush."

On The McLaughlin Group this weekend, conservative Tony Blankley of the Washington Times predicted that if Bush's approval rating is below 35% come election day, it will be a tidal wave for Democrats. But Blankley said if Bush sits in the 40s in November, it won't be.