Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Weather Or Not?














More or less, politics and weather turn out to be pretty similar. They both provide lots of data to look at, analyze, even tweak. Both are sciences, and the closer they approach -- the better we should understand them, and dare I say, predict them. But more often than not, they end up transforming into more of an art that captivates and surprises.

And no matter what we learn from the result, it only marginally helps us prepare for next time.

So here we sit, on Super Tuesday II, and the polls are about as consistent as the weather models.

Springfield could get hit with foot of snow!
Barack Obama has pulled dead even in Texas.
The Queen City could see 6 to 12?
Hillary Clinton is expanding her lead in Ohio?
We'll be lucky to get 2 inches, and it won't come until Tuesday.
Maybe Clinton won't give up even if she loses.

So as we watch this weather pattern move in, we also watch from afar the voting in two critical states (4 in all) that will likely officially crown John McCain the Republican nominee and possibly end the wild Democratic race and the era of Clinton with it.

That's IF Hillary Clinton loses to Barack Obama in both Ohio and Texas. Or maybe just Texas. Or maybe Clinton will fight on no matter what.
See, there are several models politicos are looking at.

Mathematically, Clinton's path to the nomination is quite unlikely. But if she's able to pull off wins in the two big states -- the narrative, momentum and storyline will change. She will get another day.

The more complicated scenario is a split decision. Obama wins Texas; Clinton takes Ohio.

Then what?

Well, that's why we wait and see. And that's the mostly likely outcome, because in politics, as in weather, it's usually a mixed, complicated bag.
But until then we'll speculate, bloviate and even predict . . . because its what we do. And the people -- those real people -- will roll their eyes, and continue to watch and listen. Because it's all we got.

Until that snow begins to fall, and the people begin to vote.

Happy, Snowy, Super Duper Tuesday.




1 comment:

SNIDERMAN said...

... often the turnout occurs in ways no one imagined. Weird, wild stuff.