Monday, December 04, 2006

The Second Tier

Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack is in, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh is close, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is positioning himself as the idea candidate.

It was a big week for second tier candidates considering a run for the Presidency in 2008.

Gov. Vilsack became the first official announced candidate for President in 2008. Vilsack leaped in the race early because outside of Iowa he is hardly known, and he needs to ramp up name recognition and excitement around a campaign that will most likely require toppling a Democratic titan for the nomination. Vilsack, who talks openly about being adopted, is basing his candidacy around the theme, "The Courage to Change." Although he's a Governor from the Midwest, with some support among Missouri Democrats, he's still considered a longshot.

Sen. Evan Bayh announced he will form a presidential exploratory committee this week and make an official decision after the New Year. A former two-term Governor from a red state, Bayh is considered more conservative than most of the other potential Democratic candidates.

Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich spent some time in New Hampshire this week. Sunday afternoon, I caught him on C-SPAN talking about the many challenges America faces and how to meet them. Gingrich had me engaged, because he began offering a slew of specific, innovative, forward-thinking, provocative ideas on healthcare, education and foreign affairs. Whether or not he has electability, I expect Gingrich to become the "idea candidate" on the right who forces his fellow Republicans to answer specific questions about big complicated issues.

Two ideas he's proposing to change the 2008 campaign process should be taken seriously. Gingrich says Republican and Democratic candidates should agree to appear at joint forums together in Iowa and New Hampshire in order to take the partisan venom out of the process. He also proposes holding debates where candidates talk to each other, rather than answering questions from a moderator. He says that would force both sides to better focus on issues rather than attacks. Bottom line: It's much tougher to say mean things about someone when you are looking at them standing right next to you.

It can't be overlooked that Sen. Hillary Clinton produced news by making calls to potential presidential campaign staff and colleagues. Looks like she's inching closer to what everyone has been predicting for years. Several Missouri Democrats have told me they privately fear a Clinton candidacy in 2008 and worry how it might impact their chances in other races, including the campaign for Governor. I'm told Clinton's potential candidacy in '08 was just one of the reasons Claire McCaskill gave up her dream of becoming Governor, and instead decided to run for U.S. Senate. McCaskill still believes 2004 nominee John Kerry cost her a win against Matt Blunt, and apparently thinks Clinton could hurt Jay Nixon's chances.

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