Democratic #135th Poll: Denison 40% Hagan 37%; Dems Now Call Race "Winnable"

An internal Democratic poll released exclusively to the KY3 Political Blog shows Democratic challenger Nancy Hagan within striking distance of #135th district Republican legislator Charlie Denison.

#135 House District
Rep. Charlie Denison 40%
Nancy Hagan 37%
Undecided 22%

The poll, conducted this week by the Greene County Democratic Party, surveyed 419 likely voters in the 135th legislative district. It has a margin of error of 4.7%.

The question posed: In the race for Missouri House in the 135th District, do you think you will vote for the Democrat Nancy Hagan or Republican Charlie Denison?

Below is a breakdown of the raw numbers:

Voting
Denison 169
Hagan 156
Undecided 94

This poll surveyed 135 Democrats (32%) and 186 Republicans (44%).

An internal "discussion" of the results was also released to the KY3 Political Blog. The following is the summary of the race from Southwest Research Associates.

"The results are quite promising for the Hagan campaign. The gap has narrowed substantially, and is within the margin of error (+/- 4.74%) for this survey. Denison has shown an actual decline in support from the August survey, although the difference is well within the combined margin of error for each instrument. Hagan's gain, however is well outside the margin of error. Her campaign appears to have drawn nearly all voters that have decided since August, and a few previously leaning to Denison."

The summary surmises that the remaining undecided 22% will determine the outcome of the race. "With the substantial narrowing in Hagan's favor, this race appears winnable based on this snapshot from 3 weeks out. In the unlikely event that all undecideds break for Denison, Hagan would still improve almost 10% from many previous elections in this traditionally Republican district."

The pollster notes there is no foolproof way to determine what type of party affiliation will turn out in November, and what the role of independents and third party affiliations will play. "These numbers show voters declaring a Democratic affiliation slightly above Democratic vote counts in prior years, but show a considerably lower Republican affiliation than previous election results might suggest."

Inside the numbers, Hagan is fairing better with Republicans than Denison among Democrats, and is leading with unaffiliated and independent voters.

Republican Breakdown
Hagan 13%
Denison 68%

Democratic Breakdown
Hagan 73%
Denison 11%

Neither
Hagan 31%
Denison 24%

Independents
Hagan 38%
Denison 32%

Summary from Pollster: "There were many Hagan voters that were personally impressed with her after a direct house visit. Second, several of Denison's detractors have heard about missed votes in Jefferson City -- this time appeared to be one of his more potent negatives. Finally, there were Denison leaners who simply haven't heard anything about Hagan (but had seen the signs.) These voters may be reachable with continued house visits, direct mail and expanded media advertising."

While I stress that politicos usually only release internal polls to benefit their own interest and that this is a Democratic poll, it does give a bit of glimpse of where the electorate may be heading this November. Democrats concede that the #135th is still a hail mary pass, but even a close race there would not mean good things for Republicans around Southwest Missouri.